NFL Week 5 Picks

Every week, I will look at the schedule of games and make my picks for who will win. After finishing in the 99th percentile in Yahoo! Pick 'Em last year, I'm off to a bit of a slow start this year. I believe I started off slow last season as well though, so maybe I'll start to pick it up a bit.

Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
The Bengals have pulled off a couple big upsets this year, but then almost lost to the Browns, so I'm not sure what to make of them. The Ravens, on the other hand, are definitely a very solid football team, and they should have no problem dealing with Cincinnati.

Oakland Raiders (1-3) vs. New York Giants (4-0)
It's starting to look like Eli Manning will play in this game, although I'm not sure how I feel about that. David Carr should be plenty enough to beat the Raiders, so it might be nice to give Eli the week off, but you really can't afford to give a game like this away by playing it safe. Plus, I like the consecutive starts streak Eli is building up. Hopefully they will get off to a big lead early, then let Carr finish the game. The Giants can't let up with the Saints looming, so they should do all kinds of nasty things to the Raiders.

Dallas Cowboys (2-2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (0-4)
Should I be worried about the Cowboys in this game? Probably not, but the fact that I'm even wondering is pretty bad for Dallas fans. They shouldn't even need any chemistry or their injured players to beat the Chiefs, but they better start picking up their game when the tougher opponents return.

Washington Redskins (2-2) vs. Carolina Panthers (0-3)
I have to expect the Panthers to come out of their bye week with some fire in Charlotte after a rough 0-3 start. They face the Redskins, who have not been able to get anything going this year. I couldn't even pick them last week against the Bucs (and was almost right).

Minnesota Vikings (4-0) vs. St. Louis Rams (0-4)
I don't think I need to write anything about this one.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)
I will be interested to see how McNabb fares in his return, but he doesn't have to do much. The Bucs defense has been a disappointment this year and their offense hasn't been any better. Josh Johnson should be an improvement over Byron Leftwich, but he's still nothing for Eagles fans to worry about.

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) vs. Detroit Lions (1-3)
The Steelers had a huge bounce-back victory over the Chargers last week. The Lions shouldn't pose any threat to them. Willie Parker will not play again this week, which is probably good news for Pittsburgh.

Cleveland Browns (0-4) vs. Buffalo Bills (1-3)
I'm not sure how much faith I should put in the Browns with Derek Anderson and quarterback. He certainly showed to be an improvement over Brady Quinn last week against the Bengals, and the Bills don't exactly have a great defense. Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch is a pretty good running back duo that should be able to run over the Browns defense, but Jerome Harrison was also impressive for the Browns last week (like the Steelers, they may benefit if Jamal Lewis doesn't play). If the game between these two poor teams comes down to field goals though, with Phil Dawson out, the Bills have a big advantage there with Rian Lindell over Billy Cundiff. I hate to call a game based on kickers though, but I'm not quite sure what else to go on. The Browns can't afford to leave points on the field. I'll say the Bills have the advantage in the running game, home field, and Trent Edwards will do just enough to not lose the game for them (hopefully that's not asking too much of him).

Atlanta Falcons (2-1) vs. San Francisco 49ers (3-1)
The biggest criticism of my Power Rankings was underrating the 49ers, which I expected. I do think the Falcons are a better team, but you always have to consider how a flight across the country for the game can affect the outcome. The Falcons do have the advantage of having an extra week to prepare, however. The addition of Michael Crabtree shouldn't change things much, as he will probably see limited playing time until he gets more comfortable with the offense (if anything, I'm worried it might hurt the 49ers if they try to force him into the action when he's not ready). In the end, I suppose I trust Coach Mike Singletary to handle Crabtree properly and have his defense ready to host the high-powered Atlanta offense. Make me a believer.

Houston Texans (2-2) vs. Arizona Cardinals (2-1)
While I'm not exactly sold on the Cardinals just yet, I'm even more down on the Texans. However, if there's a team that will fail to capitalize on the Texans' horrible rush defense, it's the Cardinals (and I am surprised to find out as I look at the stats that the Chargers actually have the lowest rushing yards per game). Meanwhile, the Texans are trying to get Steve Slaton going, but Matt Schaub can pick apart the Cardinals' weak pass defense with his talented receivers Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter. I guess I'm just not ready to pick the Texans against the team that after all is still the defending NFC champions. True, the Cardinals don't have much of a run offense, but if the Texans' run defense is so terrible that it could allow the Cards to have a balanced offense, then watch out.

New England Patriots (3-1) vs. Denver Broncos (4-0)
I hate picking against the Patriots. I picked against them the past two weeks and they made me regret it. This is a very tough matchup though if the Broncos are real, especially going to Denver, but I just can't get myself to pick against the Patriots. I would not be surprised if the Broncos proved me to be a fool, though, but I will accept that if it happens.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks (1-3)
Going to Seattle is always tough, especially if you're coming all the way from Florida. I originally had the Jaguars, because Jacksonville has been impressive and Seneca Wallace will give away the home field advantage. However, it looks like Matt Hasselbeck will be ready to return, so I can expect him to lead his team to victory over the mediocre Jaguars.

Indianapolis Colts (4-0) vs. Tennessee Titans (0-4)
The Titans have to win sooner or later, right? Perhaps this is the week, in desparation at home against a division rival. If they win, good for them. But there's no way I can pick the Colts to lose to them at this point.

New York Jets (3-1) vs. Miami Dolphins (1-3)
Nice home field advantage for the Dolphins here, but they absolutely have to run the ball to have success, and the Jets will shut down the running game, unless Rex Ryan just gets completely thrown out of the loop by the Wildcat. He is smart enough that I don't see that happening. Mark Sanchez should have a fine bounce-back game after the loss to the Saints. The Dolphins managed to beat the Bills with Chad Henne, but the Jets are a much better team than Buffalo.


So, there are my mighty bold picks for the week. Not a single upset in the bunch. Oh well. I don't like to pick all the favorites, and I usually have my share of upsets in the mix, but I'm just not seeing them this week. There's a couple that I could pick, but I'm not going to pick upsets just for the sake of picking upsets.

Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 12-4
Week 4: 10-4
Season: 43-19